John Curtice writing today (16 July 2014) on Democratic Audit says:
Labour needs to watch the Greens because the Greens are potential alternative form of protest for Lib Democrat voters as are to some degree UKIP.
Democratic Audit 16 July 2014 : Five minutes with John Curtice: “The problem facing the Conservatives is that so far this is a voteless recovery”
I think all parties need to watch both the Greens and UKIP but not just as parties of protest but as serious potential challengers. First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral systems like ours tends to concentrate power into the hands of the least unpopular parties – usually giving the least unpopular an absolute majority on a minority vote. So the big two / three may think that the next election is a private battle between the three of them (at least in England). They could be wrong. Read more…