Outside the marginals

a commentary on the politics that followed the UK 2010 & 2015 elections

Archive for the category “In/Out Referendum”

Any leadership to prevent this Brexit?

There was a Labour Party public meeting held this week-end in this Tory safe seat. Whilst in some ways it is heartening to see any political activity in the constituency that is well outside the marginals, it is also a bit worrying to see potential dissipation of effort. Arguably Labour should be putting its efforts into more marginal seats in the region, either defending seats vulnerable to loss or seeking to recapture winnable seats from the Tories.

Local officials seemed very chipper despite accepting that the Council Election results were a “disaster”. It was not quite so unrealistic as saying “one more heave”, but the view seemed to be that a few more heaves would capture the seat.

But by the time that has happened, the country may look very different. Read more…

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Theresa’s Dictionary: Brexit

Every empress, or prospective emperor, has to give the appearance of having “the common touch”. In view of the restricted background of our new empress, I offer her a dictionary in the hope that studying it will help her understand the people she wishes to rule.

Brexit

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Enemies of the People

The country is split; horribly horribly split. This week’s High Court judgement has opened the split even more.

But dig deeper and it is not a Brexit vs Anti-Brexit split. It is a deeper and more dangerous split amongst the people of this country. The split is between those who have given up on the major institutions of the country (Parliament, Judiciary, City, “Mainstream Media”) – as well as the EU and all its institutions – and those who are still trying to have faith in some of the institutions.

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Trump and Brexit

I would like to write him off, but Trump did win the Republican Nomination even though so many commentators said he was a joke.

Why did he win the nomination?

  • He has plugged into something that most commentators (professional and amateur) don’t understand
  • I suspect that his supporters hold “commentators” in contempt, so either,
    • they are not listening to the commentators saying what a danger he is, or
    • they are listening and what is being said just hardens their support for him

He put together a coalition of support in places where it mattered and won the nomination. To win the presidency (elected by an electoral college) he has to build a coalition of support in places where it matters – the swing states. Outside those marginals it does not matter what people think or vote.

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Identity post Brexit

The recent vote to leave the EU has had me pondering my identity and how this may guide me in the next few, possibly turbulent, years.

The late Charles Kennedy, used to say

he was “a Highlander, a Scot, a Briton and a European”, in that order.
West Highland Free Press, 5 June 2015 | “The brightest and the best of men”

Following that model I should be “a Southerner, English, British and European”, in that order; but I don’t feel I am. Read more…

Intruding on private grief

As in good grief, what is going on?

Last Thursday’s momentous vote was a vote to begin divorce proceedings. Or, if you like, to move out of the house we share with 27 other countries.

It did not, though, come with any plan – let alone an agreement – as to where we are moving next or what our relationship will be in future with those we used to share our life with.

Asked a few days before the vote whether he had such a plan for the day after if the Leave campaign won Boris Johnson was brutally frank – in private at least. No was his answer.

He and other Leavers declared their hope that David Cameron would have one and would stay in office to implement it.

But Cameron was determined not to be the one tasked with clearing up a mess which, he believes, they created.

Besides he believes he would have no credibility doing so either at home – with the electorate who rejected his pleas to remain in the EU – or in Brussels – with leaders who listened when he assured them that he could and would win the referendum.
BBC News Website, 27 June 2016 | Nick Robinson Comment, UK suffers leadership gap in risky times

So how do we clear up this mess – “Project Farce” – as Nicola Sturgeon as termed it? Read more…

We voted against Elites; the Elites consolidate

It has been said that much of the reason for the Brexit vote was people’s desire to vote against elites. So what has changed?

There are changes in the Conservative party and there are rumblings within the Labour Party. Read more…

Post “The Day” Reflections

Ok, I think it’s a disaster and I am livid at what I see as the way both campaigns – but particularly Leave’s – were run. (Remain was inept, but Leave at times seemed deliberately devious.) If I had been active in the campaign I would also be feeling sore.
But the deed is done and we have to accept the result even if we can’t respect it. But there are a number of issues that bear closer examination.

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The (Current) Coalition Government

The Conservative Party has delivered the referendum.Now back to working with colleagues to deliver the reforms we pledged in our manifesto

As the polls close, worth reflecting on fact that we delivered pledge to have referendum. Now the Conservative party can come back together

Historic referendum vote is over, I’m proud a Conservative gvt gave British people their say. Now time for our party to come back together.

The brass neck! (Do I detect a party line?) They have been casting doubts on each others’ honesty and integrity and knocking seven bells out of each other with even more vigour than they attack Labour at General Elections. Read more…

On the Precipice; No one likes us, it’s OK

What will happen on Thursday 23 June 2016 – the day of the EU In/Out Referendum promised to the Euro-septics? More importantly what happens afterwards?

We are told it’s going to be OK. The remain team’s warnings are overblown and can be dismissed (“dismiss” is the Leave team’s reflex reaction to anything Remain says) and we will have freedom! (Think Braveheart – staring Nigel Farage and Buffo Johnson) Read more…

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