Outside the marginals

A commentary on the politics that followed the UK 2010, 2015 & 2017 elections (and THAT referendum)

Archive for the category “In/Out Referendum”

Who is afraid of No Deal?

We are getting a lot of coverage of the prospects of No Deal in the UK’s Brexit negotiations. This could be because as we approach the cliff edge we are beginning to wonder what No Deal really looks like. But there could be other reasons. Read more…

Laboured Progress

Scottish Labour’s Brexit spokesman Neil Findlay said: “The shambolic handling of the Brexit negotiations so far is more about the chaos at the heart of the Tory party than securing an agreement that works for the people of the UK.

“If Theresa May cannot get her proposals through the commons she must call an election. Labour would deliver a jobs-first Brexit which means a customs union with the EU and tariff free access to the single market.”
Alistair Grant, Political Correspondent: The Herald, 10 September 2018, Scotland’s police and prosecutors ‘unable to prepare for Brexit’

This sums up the chaos in British Politics (No wonder so many in Scotland want out) Read more…

The Legacy of Cameron

There is much writing about the “bad boys of Brexit” – those who fiddled the referendum and spread the lies. But we have to remember the man who enabled the referendum and the resulting mess. Read more…

What if: Stop Brexit or Exit from Brexit

There is a growing demand for either:

  • A people’s vote on the final Brexit Deal. The options not yet clear but could include any permutation of:
    • Deal on Offer,
    • No Deal,
    • Continue Negotiation,
    • Abandon Brexit
  • Just abandoning Brexit as “too difficult”, undesirable or lacking a robust undisputed mandate.

But just calling for either of these options is insufficient. There is a danger of just reversing the current polarisation rather than healing the massive divisions in the country. (Never mind the divisions in the Conservative Party – until they are resolved the country will never have political peace.)

The question has to be asked, “what are the consequences of either of the above actions and how can they be managed?” It was failure to consider the consequences of a Leave vote (two years ago!) that has left us in our current mess. We want to get out of the mess, not just turn it upside down. Read more…

Parliament and “The Will of The People”

Since the referendum the Government (or the hard Brexit elements of it) have found a new “respect” for “The Will of The People”. A respect so strong that they seem to be completely enslaved to it – provided of course that the “Will” in question is the Will expressed on 23rd June 2016.

It raises some interesting questions about The Primacy of the House of Commons. Read more…

I agree with Tony

It’s worrying when it comes to this. I read an article by Tony Blair and find myself agreeing with it. My unease probably underlines why he is a voice in the dark and why his prescription – even if stated by a more acceptable voice (but who?) will be ignored.

And yet … Read more…

Any leadership to prevent this Brexit?

There was a Labour Party public meeting held this week-end in this Tory safe seat. Whilst in some ways it is heartening to see any political activity in the constituency that is well outside the marginals, it is also a bit worrying to see potential dissipation of effort. Arguably Labour should be putting its efforts into more marginal seats in the region, either defending seats vulnerable to loss or seeking to recapture winnable seats from the Tories.

Local officials seemed very chipper despite accepting that the Council Election results were a “disaster”. It was not quite so unrealistic as saying “one more heave”, but the view seemed to be that a few more heaves would capture the seat.

But by the time that has happened, the country may look very different. Read more…

Theresa’s Dictionary: Brexit (1)

Every empress, or prospective emperor, has to give the appearance of having “the common touch”. In view of the restricted background of our new empress, I offer her a dictionary in the hope that studying it will help her understand the people she wishes to rule.

Brexit (1)

Read more…

Enemies of the People

The country is split; horribly horribly split. This week’s High Court judgement has opened the split even more.

But dig deeper and it is not a Brexit vs Anti-Brexit split. It is a deeper and more dangerous split amongst the people of this country. The split is between those who have given up on the major institutions of the country (Parliament, Judiciary, City, “Mainstream Media”) – as well as the EU and all its institutions – and those who are still trying to have faith in some of the institutions.

Read more…

Trump and Brexit

I would like to write him off, but Trump did win the Republican Nomination even though so many commentators said he was a joke.

Why did he win the nomination?

  • He has plugged into something that most commentators (professional and amateur) don’t understand
  • I suspect that his supporters hold “commentators” in contempt, so either,
    • they are not listening to the commentators saying what a danger he is, or
    • they are listening and what is being said just hardens their support for him

He put together a coalition of support in places where it mattered and won the nomination. To win the presidency (elected by an electoral college) he has to build a coalition of support in places where it matters – the swing states. Outside those marginals it does not matter what people think or vote.

Read more…

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