I would like to write him off, but Trump did win the Republican Nomination even though so many commentators said he was a joke.
Why did he win the nomination?
- He has plugged into something that most commentators (professional and amateur) don’t understand
- I suspect that his supporters hold “commentators” in contempt, so either,
- they are not listening to the commentators saying what a danger he is, or
- they are listening and what is being said just hardens their support for him
He put together a coalition of support in places where it mattered and won the nomination. To win the presidency (elected by an electoral college) he has to build a coalition of support in places where it matters – the swing states. Outside those marginals it does not matter what people think or vote.