Keeping the Last Colony?

So the colonial masters have finally decided that they need to visit and tell the rebels that it is “just not on”.

If you want to persuade Scots that they should stay in the UK, you don’t at the last minute send in a triple pack of English Politicians to represent the old order.

Teetering

I suspect that we are now seeing two “debates” about Scotland.

• Within Scotland there is a vigorous debate going on with much soul-searching between:
  • a self-confident, self-contained “Yes” campaign that knows what it wants and thinks it can see the way to get it. They have traction.
  • a stuttering, disparate and increasingly desperate “No” campaign that knows what it does not want but cannot coherently vocalise what it does want. It is slipping.
• Outside Scotland there is a horrified “shadow” semi-debate that lacks any structure or discipline – typical of debates amongst the disenfranchised.

Examples Quotes:

• Nicola Sturgeon, “Yes has the big momentum.”
  BBC News website 7 September 2014 : Scottish independence: Vote ‘will go to the wire’
• Alan Johnson, “Scotland as a nation is crucial to us in the UK”
  BBC One 7 September 2014 : Andrew Marr Show

These quotes rather sum up the situation, and illustrate why the Union may be lost.

Scotland: The decisive argument?

I have always felt that for Scots (or more accurately the inhabitants of Scotland) the decisive argument (in the Independence Referendum debate) is not going to be economics, but some form of belief. It will be a leap of faith for those with the courage.

Promising a Referendum

Labour has received a

warning from Unite general secretary Len McCluskey that the party risked being “boxed in” at the 2015 general election unless it dropped its opposition to matching David Cameron’s promise to allow voters a say.
The Guardian 3 July 2014 : Labour would be ‘silly’ to offer EU referendum, says Ed Balls

What-ever happens the right wing press is going to attempt to “box in” Labour. So, the question is:

EU priorities vs Dave’s priorities

This is becoming a car crash that will have interesting implication for how we vote in the 2015 general Election.

French President Francois Hollande described … Mr Cameron’s demands for EU treaty changes by 2017, as a prelude to a referendum on the UK’s membership, as “not a priority for the time being”.
BBC News Website: 31 January 2014 Cameron and Hollande differ over reforms to EU

So how will this play out?

Sleep-walking behind the Faragistas

Dramatic changes are not necessarily brought about by significant events, but by an accumulation of apparently trivial events.  Thus our policy toward Europe is now (by default) being controlled by the Faragistas.

Cameron’s Curate’s Egg

Is Cameron’s speech “good in parts”?

Possibly, there is some good in it, but a lot is more than just unpalatable.  The style however is determinedly Euro-septic [sic].  And there lies the problem; is this a genuine attempt to launch a debate about the future structure of Europe, or is he merely “Farraging”?.  I wish it was the former, but I fear it is the latter.

So what can be taken from the speech?

Lording it, or a Peerless Reform?

The reaction to the Queen’s Speech (BBC News Website 9 May 2012) seems to highlight some confused thinking about Lords Reform.

European Referendum

It would appear that Cameron has got his dog-whistle out again as he tries to pirouette on a pin over the European Referendum issue.

He seems to be trying to say we will have a referendum but it will not be an “in or out” referendum.  So what will it be on?

Timid reforms are a waste of money

I think they have cocked it up (and that is putting it politely!).

Glegg wants a referendum on AV – which is only a half-baked fig-leaf to cover the bankruptcy of the present system (thereby upsetting his own party), but:

• He has made it controversial by the choice of date (upsetting Nationalists etc.)
• He is conflating it with plans to reduce the number of MPs and even up the number of voters per seat (upsetting a self-interested Labour party and giving them a reason to vote against their manifesto support of AV).

And the Conservatives basically don’t want it!